Harper, Texas Weather Resources

000
FXUS64 KEWX 281859
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
159 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms along and east
  of the I-35 corridor today. 

- Rain chances shift westward Thursday into Friday with locally
  heavy rain possible for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
  Grande plains. 

- Mild temperatures persist through the weekend and into early
  next week before a cold front moves through Tuesday providing 
  another opportunity for rain and cooler temperatures into the 
  middle of next week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows an enhanced cu field along the
middle Texas coast where GOES blended PWAT values of around 1.75"
are noted. Some light showers are noted across this region as well
as extending farther inland into the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor. Hi-res models tend to favor areas generally along and
east of I-35 today for some afternoon into early evening
convection. Suspect most of this activity will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Attention will then turn westward into
the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau for the
overnight hours as the low-level jet begins to increase, helping
to provide an uptick in low-level moisture. In addition, a series
of mid-level disturbances embedded in southwest flow aloft will
move in and aid in the development of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. The latest model guidance continues to heavily
favor the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western
Hill Country for the highest rain chances on Thursday. The low-
level jet appears to be much stronger Thursday night across the
above mentioned areas, so rain chances remain high, along with the
concern for some locally heavy rainfall. The WPC continues to
maintain a Level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rainfall generally west of
a Kerrville to Carrizo Springs line, with a level 1 of 4 risk
extending to near the U.S. Highway 281 corridor. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A decrease in mid-level shortwave activity is anticipated by
Friday afternoon, so a gradual decrease in the intensity of rain
should follow. However, we continue to see adequate moisture along
with an upper level jet moving in from the west, so rain chances
will continue out west and spread eastward across the remainder of
south central Texas. The highest rainfall amounts for Thursday and
Friday still remain focused across the southern Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande plains region, especially Val Verde and Edwards
Counties, where rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches are possible. Amounts will taper
significantly as you head east into the I-35 corridor, where
around 1/2" are forecast. 

On Saturday, some lingering moisture and instability will be
present over most of the region, but rain chances should generally
remain favored mainly north of U.S. Highway 90. With the loss of
daytime heating, rain chances drop out of the forecast Saturday
evening and overnight. Mid-level ridging builds over the area
Sunday in advance of a deepening upper trough over the western
U.S., which should yield dry weather for most of the region. 

The next weather system to impact the region will be dropping
southward into the southern U.S. plains states early next week. We
do continue to see some timing differences between the operational
GFS and ECMWF and for now will show an increase in rain chances
for most of the region beginning Monday night with a cold front
expected to move through on Tuesday. Both of the above mentioned
models do show a line of convection with the passage of the cold
front, so another opportunity for rainfall exists for areas likely
to miss out on the Thursday and Friday rainfall event. The front 
is expected to drop temperatures to near or slightly below normal 
for Tuesday into Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Ceilings have been slow to lift this morning as low level moisture
and light winds out of the east have kept IFR to MVFR ceilings
around. We should see a return to VFR at all sites by 20Z with
AUS, SAT, and SSF returning to VFR by 19Z at the latest and DRT by
20Z. Winds turn more ESE through the day today before letting up
close to calm at AUS overnight. Elsewhere, speeds should remain
above 5 kts but some fog is possible, but dense fog is not
expected at this time. LIFR ceilings appear possible again
tomorrow morning, but could be dependent on whether showers are in
the area keeping visby's up. Confidence in rain is highest at DRT
late tonight followed by a gradual spread eastward into the San
Antonio metro by late morning Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  79  64  76 /  10  30  20  40 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  80  62  77 /  10  20  10  40 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  80  63  77 /  10  30  20  40 
Burnet Muni Airport            66  74  61  72 /  10  50  30  60 
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  73  64  74 /  50  90  90  70 
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  78  62  75 /  10  30  20  40 
Hondo Muni Airport             66  76  62  75 /  30  70  40  60 
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  80  61  78 /  10  20  20  40 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  83  63  80 /  10  10  10  30 
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  78  64  76 /  20  40  30  50 
Stinson Muni Airport           68  79  65  77 /  20  40  30  50 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...MMM